Speculating On Tesla & Maxwell Technologies Battery Investor Day | HyperChange

Speculating On Tesla & Maxwell Technologies Battery Investor Day | HyperChange


I’m very confident Elon Musk and
Tesla would not have a battery investor day if they do not have a game-changing
strategy to announce. Maxwell Technologies. Let’s read the breadcrumbs. I’m getting a little sidetracked here but this is, trust me, this is gonna get good. The
breadcrumbs here is – Maxwell Technologies is this crazy little super capacitor
company based in San Diego. They figured out a way, in the way that they’re making
their super capacitors like “wait we can figure out how to make dry electrode batteries. Dry battery electrodes” This is a huge market because batteries are way bigger market things to ultra capacitors and we just stumbled in this way to produce them with a way, way, way more
efficient method. The point is that you need to know – dry battery
electrode – Tesla & every other car company has wet? I guess wet electrodes. But the dry electrode doesn’t need this massive
drying oven and so it’s a much simpler product. You don’t need this massive
drying oven. You need way less space. Way less time. Way simpler to build a battery. What
does that mean? Cost. It’s all about the cost of the battery. With a Tesla it
was like a $100,00 for the Roadster. $50,000 for the Model S. You know $7,000 or $8,000 now to replace a Tesla battery. $8,000. That could get even
cheaper with Maxwell. So Tesla’s about to have a way to make batteries even
cheaper and potentially even better and they’re gonna last longer. A million-mile
battery which changes the whole economics of what it would be to
purchase a car. So my point is here, Tesla’s has the best battery technology in
the industry and that is their crappy technology. Like that’s a crappy way to
build batteries. It’s a crappy way to make batteries. It’s crappy performance
of batteries compared to what they have already in the bag. So when you’re
hearing people like Sandy Munro, who are the foremost auto industry consultants,
talk about how Tesla has a five year lead in batteries.. They are looking in
the rearview mirror, they don’t even know the disruption that’s coming and they’re
talking about Tess having a five year lead. So it’s hard to really process that
but my point here is and I don’t know what Tesla’s gonna announce I’m
just speculating but I’m I’m very confident Elon Musk and Tesla would not
have a battery investor day if they do not have a game-changing strategy to announce. And they’re gonna announce a terawatt. I’m sorry. A
roadmap to a terawatt of energy production. That is about you know 30 x
of where they are today. So Tesla out here is a 25 billion
company mainly with their batteries as their biggest supply constraint input
into their sales of products. If they do a 30x increase on that unit, I mean we’re
looking at a 30 times increase in revenue. I mean, that could be a trillion
in revenue right there. So Tesla could unveil the roadmap to produce enough
batteries to hit a trillion dollars in revenue at this battery investor day. I
mean, this is game-changing. I just don’t think, you know, I’m
not a car investor I’m not an electric vehicle investor. I’m like a technology
investor. Like that’s what gets me excited, that’s why I love investing and
like learning about these companies. It’s about how do we take disruptive,
innovation, technologies from breakthrough inventors and commercialize
them? That’s where value gets created. That’s how industries change. That’s how
the world changes and that is what Tesla’s about to do. They’re taking this
tiny little science project that Maxwell technology was working on for years but
if you go read the conference calls of this company they’re talking about how
this is the most game-changing technology in the electric field
industry. They’ve partnered with this top-secret auto company they can’t talk
about. It’s gonna totally transform their business. It’s a tier 1 global company.
They’re not allowed to talk about what they’re doing with them or you know
anything. Tesla buys them. To me it seems pretty clear Tesla was working with this
on Maxwell for years. Scaled it. Perfected it. Figured out that this technology was
not vaporware. It could work. They bought them and they bought them to start
building a ton of those batteries and so there’s a paper put out by Shirley Mang
who’s a researcher or not Shirley Mang she’s one of the researchers who’s been
working on this with Maxwell but I think she wasn’t on the original dry battery
electrode paper. But anyway, I could put a link to that in the comments after I get
off livestream. The dry battery electrode paper, I think it’s worth reading for
everybody because that’s like the best clue we have about what Tesla will
announce after battery investor day. Anyway so I guess my point is to wrap it
up here I think Tesla’s an amazing company. The
markets starting to understand the story that we see today. But the story that
we’re about to see tomorrow in 2020 with the battery investor day is like… it’s gonna be a totally new story that is gonna, yeah so anyway.

56 thoughts on “Speculating On Tesla & Maxwell Technologies Battery Investor Day | HyperChange

  1. Look at this: 100 000 W/kg, you can charge and discharge the battery in about 20 seconds:
    https://www.skoltech.ru/en/2019/11/skoltech-scientists-developed-superfast-charging-high-capacity-potassium-batteries-based-on-organic-polymers/

  2. The cost advantages you're talking about from switch to DBE:
    – Less space on your factory floor for fabrication equipment
    – Less CapEx for the equipment
    – Less OpEx for drying during fabrication
    – Vertical integration to include cell production, rather than shedding profit to Panasonic/CATL

  3. Elon has said it would take around 100 gigafactories to get us off of fossil fuel dependence. Was this auto alone? Or did it include other energy dependencies? Either way 1 Terawatt is about 30 gigafactories, which is 1/3 of capacity being met by Tesla alone. Wish I had invested even more when the stock price was lower last summer. Oh well, at least I'm not short Tesla stock.

  4. Tesla does everything from first principles. They're going to be making their own battery cells and battery packs. In keeping with their own philosophy, I think they're going to integrate the 2 processes and manufacture their pack as a single product. By doing this, they could optimize everything, especially cooling, which would allow for higher charge rates and reduced degradation over time.

    Check out this article from October when Tesla filed a patent for this tech. Doesn't mean they will use it, but I've been thinking about it for 3 months and can't come up with a reason why they wouldn't.
    https://insideevs.com/news/376931/tesla-patent-battery-cell-pack-production/

  5. Did you hear Elon say that during the next earnings call, he'd address his goals down the road. Master Plan 3 maybe.

  6. It takes 12-24hrs to dry solvents in the wet process. Dry battery tech eliminates that time in manufacturing Throughput Time (TPT) of cell manufacturing significantly higher. More cells per unit time from same facility. Also removing the ovens allows higher floor space utilization thus increasing volume of cells per square foot of the facilities = significant cell production volume increase without significant capital investments.

  7. Gali, have you seen Sean from all things EV latest video on battery tec with Ravindra Kempahia PhD, his take on the million mile battery has really weakened my belief in Tesla actually producing it

  8. Solid State is the Holy Grail – but like that elusive cup – it may never be found. Tesla is way ahead, of course, so maybe we have to be satisfied with their continued lead for a few years..

  9. Hi, i'm a longtime Tesla fanboy and recent Tesla investor (april 2019) and i love your content.
    I would love it if you would make a video discussing the recent accidents of sudden unexpected acceleration and deacceleration of Tesla's. Inetially i wrote it off as "user error", and so did Tesla, but after i did a small amount of research i am beggining to doubt myself.

    Tesla have been very hesistant to share the data from the last 5 seconds before the accidents, and the tiny amount of data publically available, showed that the car made a short sequence of accelerations with exactly 1.0 second breaks. If this would have been user errors the driver would have had to press and release the acceleration pedal with exactly 1.0 second intervals, which is very unlikely for a human.

    I am aware that this is more of a negative topic, i am a tesla investor myself and i can understand if you do not wont to discuss something that might hurt Tesla. But i would really apreciate it if you did som research on this and made a video discussing it. I would very much like a reply where you either deny or confirm my request, no explanation needed. Love from Denmark 🙂

  10. Also wet electrode loses 20% capacity in the drying process. Dry electrodes don’t. So cheaper cost and higher capacity per kg just with the process

  11. I hope the dry cell battery (or solid state one) will help explain the 200kw battery pack for the 20/20 Roadster, the 2170 cells would require approx. 14000 cells?

  12. feels good for us to be validated by billions of dollars in tesla investment recently, there's no denying the success now.

  13. I like your enthusiasm but as an investor I don't count on it coming out soon. Replacing current tech with something unproven but promising could lead to disaster! DBE will probably be tested in volunteer's cars as Beta testers first.

  14. So did this subject come up when you met with Elon a couple of weeks ago? Either when the battery electric day would be or what it would involve? Or if he would announce the date at the earnings call?

  15. There are a lot of clues besides Maxwell's papers, actually.

    Consider the Cybertruck pricing scheme:

    Base model – 250 mile range.

    2 motor model – 300 mile range.

    3 motor model – it jumps to 500 miles range.

    But the top tier price only jumps by about $20K. As it stands, that top-tier Cybertruck will have the best unit price divided by range of all of Tesla's models.

    The new Roadster is another clue. 620 miles of range! Tesla could do that by stacking a pair of slightly modified Model 3 packs, but they obviously have not done that, else the passenger compartment would be about 8 inches higher than it is.

    The Plaid option for Model S and X is probably another place where they will introduce newer-tech batteries in the near term. Eventually, as production of the new batteries rises, they'll start putting them in all Model S and X vehicles to make them more compelling, to differentiate them from the downmarket models, to give consumers more reasons to lust after the higher end.

    The Semi has a definite need for newer-tech batteries, too – particularly the longer-range version. Attaining over 500 miles of range on a Semi that, with trailer and cargo, masses 80,000 lbs, if using old-tech batteries, is going to have an enormous and heavy battery pack that will cut deeply into the cargo capacity it can haul. Mercedes, contemplating their own plans, stated flatly that 250 miles for a Semi was all they could see would be practical, and cast shade on Tesla's own Semi ambitions. But Mercedes doesn't have a new-tech battery in its plans. Tesla does, it seems.

    This is the picture that I see emerging: Tesla needs a whopping lot of batteries, and they have contracts to honor, so I don't expect Tesla to sever its relationships with Panasonic and LG Chem. So they'll have several years over which they'll need to keep using older-tech batteries at the low end: Model 3, Model Y, the lower tier Cybertrucks, perhaps the cheaper version of the Semi. The other, higher-end models will need new-tech batteries just to launch them into the market. Since those models are forecast to be launched very soon, a new-tech battery must be nearing production, I'm thinking.

    Eventually, Tesla will phase out older-tech batteries throughout all of their models, but first they'll have to establish a whole bunch of new cell production lines and exhaust their contracts with Panasonic and LG Chem. While they are ramping up the Model Y! And adding new models! That'll take years. They'll be chasing a moving target. Tesla really does need a whopping lot of battery cells being produced in-house before they'll be able to phase out the Panasonic and LG Chem cells.

    If this scenario is at all realistic, then Tesla's advantage over rivals is about to expand dramatically. The new battery should, if it uses Maxwell's dry electrode coating method, be much cheaper per unit of energy storage and last longer, as well.

    We have fewer clues about what Tesla may be planning for electrolytes, but we know Tesla has been collaborating and scheming with research partners, and several different approaches have leaked over the last couple of years, so it's possible that this new-tech battery we're anticipating may have some improvements there, as well.

    Yep, it's definitely exciting. It feels as if we're on the cusp of something spectacular.

  16. Hey Gali we all love you. At the ones of us who love Tesla and our cars and our stock. However the batteries Tesla is producing is not crappy but quickly becoming outdated. No one else can produce cars with such range. We know what you mean tho. Cheaper and longer lasting and longer range seems to define older batteries as "Crappy" maybe to the Tesla family but to the rest of the world their context is what!? Tesla is making Crappy batteries and Gali said so! So perspective Gali. We all can be caught up into this mindset because we are yearning for better Great Job on defining what the future will be.

  17. The dry electrode may nit translate to lower costs but it may only be higher volumes. Which mean a slightly more exspensive battery with slightly better performance but a greatly increased production

  18. It's not going to be a road map. Remember the autonomous driving day? They announced a technology that was already being built into their cars.

    So my money is on the fact that when they have their March Battery Day, the new batteries will have been going into all Tesla cars for at least a month.

  19. Better batteries are fantastic news for renewable energy storage, vehicles, power tools and mobile devices, the future is now!

  20. They were able to not leak anything about Cybertrek.
    I start to feel whatever speculation you had about battery tech is just scratching the surface.
    I think they will drop some bombshell like "Battery cost at cell can now be achieve at $50/kwh"

  21. Hi Galileo love your video's on this subject.

    Things are moving quickly in the battery world, especially given the huge resources (ie. money) that have poured into this area over the recent past and continue going forward.

    Is it possible that we will see a breakthrough in batteries giving us a dramatic increase in capacity whilst lowering the costs significantly?
    (I leave out longevity and degradation as Dr Dahn and the Halifax team seem to have resolved much of this issue and continue to make improvements)

    The answer to that would seem to be – well maybe –

    Perhaps you'd like to look at this paper by Australian researchers at Monash University. It's an interesting read and could have far reaching implications –

    https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/1/eaay2757

    Note also that these are not the only reputable people working toward the rapid advance in batteries and like the development of phones I think we will see something similar in the battery industry.

    I'm looking forward to the next 5 years it'll be interesting to say the least.

  22. Question: How to choose a trustworthy stockbroker? Are online broker safe, how to choose one that is for sure not gonna take my money and escape? 😀

    I'm completely new to how brokers and online brokers really work, and how do you hold stock (what proves that you own stock, to not be worried of the above example etc.)

    What is a fair price for a broker to charge, is it per buy/sell order, or is it per how many shares bought/sold in that order? I'm also not really looking to pay extra for financial education (advice) from a broker (been listening to Gali for at least 2 years, I think I got the grasp of it from him).

    Any help will be appreciated beyond comprehension, none of my in-person friends knows anything related to stocks…

    I'm trying to invest in Tesla in general, especially when (if) the price drops in Q1, so trying to figure it out 🙂 Again, any help is greatly appreciated 🙂

  23. Laughing at you trying to state all the capability’s and synergies Tesla has now and the power of their future. It’s so huge it is a catalyst to joy laughter.

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